BM Desk :  The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised concerns regarding the potential decline in Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current fiscal year (2025-26), attributing this to the effects of US countervailing duties.

The ADB indicated that the growth projection for the ongoing fiscal year (2025-26) has been downgraded due to a decrease in exports and challenges within the industrial sector. Furthermore, the influence of US countervailing duties is also a contributing factor. However, the ADB did not specify the exact anticipated GDP growth rate.

This information was included in the recently released July edition of the ADB’s Asian Development Outlook. This report does not provide forecasts for GDP growth or inflation on a country-specific basis but instead offers insights at the regional level, including data on several key countries. It also presents an analysis of the economic dynamics at play.

In its April report, the ADB’s Asian Development Outlook suggested that Bangladesh’s GDP growth could reach 5.1 percent for the fiscal year 2025-26.

In April, the US government declared a 37 percent countervailing duty on products from Bangladesh. This duty was subsequently lowered to 35 percent and is set to take effect on August 1. The government of Bangladesh is currently in discussions with the US administration regarding this matter. Should the new countervailing duty be enforced, various items, including ready-made garments, will incur additional duties to access the US market. Industry leaders in this sector are concerned that this could significantly hinder product exports, thereby affecting the overall economy.

In the meantime, the ADB’s report from July regarding inflation indicated a slight decrease in inflation for the outgoing fiscal year. This decline can be attributed to the stability of global commodity prices along with stringent monetary and fiscal policies. Consequently, the forecast for the fiscal year 2026 remains unchanged.

The ADB’s April report had anticipated that the average overall inflation would drop to 8 percent in the fiscal year 2025-26.

The nation has been grappling with high inflation for the past three years. Nevertheless, there has been a downward trend in inflation over the last few months. As per the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), overall inflation saw a minor reduction to 8.48 percent in June, marking the lowest rate since July 2022. Over the past year, food inflation peaked at 14.10 percent in July 2024, the highest in 13 years. For the following seven months, food inflation remained above 10 percent, before falling below that threshold in the subsequent five months.