Bangladesh may have to get used to social distancing as the country may be in the covid fight for the long haul. Bangladesh will have to achieve herd immunity to be able to fully counter coronavirus, health and epidemiology expert said.
Emphasizing that the current state-mandated 10-days lockdown may fail to effectively counter the covid-19 outbreak, a leading epidemiologist has said, preferring anonymity “I have a terrible feeling that we are going to get to the stage where everybody would have to get infected until we get to herd immunity.”
Bangladesh need at least 21 day lockdown to achieve a distinctive result for fighting with Covid-19, they said adding that herd immunity is that majority people in a population have immunity to an infection to be able to effectively stop that disease from spreading.
According to experts 35 to 40 % of a total population will have to get infected before herd immunity is achieved. In Bangladesh scenario, that may mean over 50 million people need to get infected.
Bangladesh public health sector has already been spread thin, tackling the pandemic, with many healthcare organisations facing a severe shortage of basic protective gear and ventilator support. More and more private institutions have stepped in to help tackle the health crisis, along with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina allocating Tk 250 crore for additional healthcare measures.
The lockdown may help reduce the immediate load on the healthcare system and correspondingly reduce the avoidable deaths– those who die due to lack of facilities such as ventilators.
There is a danger that apart from the virus itself, hunger will kill more people., the epidemiologist predicted
Highlighting the fear of a recession, economist predicted “it is a huge hit to the GDP, and to incomes. But it does not stop there, we are going to get into a very major recession.”