Roman ULLAH, a France based Lawyer
It would mean war between two NATO countries: these were the first words of the Chairman of Denmark’s Defense Committee Rasmus Jarlov. Renewing the intention of his predecessor Harry Truman who proposed the purchase of Greenland for $100 million (almost $2 billion adjusted to 2025) back in 1946, Donald Trump manifested his interest in transferring the sovereignty of the island under the US’s influence and control. This American tradition is no surprise as their policies have always leaned towards domestic security, national production, energy independence and protection of national interests abroad.
When it comes to international trade and military influence, both are often correlated to protect interests as recently we had been witnessing US bombings in Yemen, holding the fortress of Houthis which were actively bombing and sinking allied ships, cruising from the Red Sea through the Suez Canal (allowing the transit of 12% of global traded goods) thus impacting the US and it’s allies economies.
The Arctic Ocean, home of the Greenlanders, is increasingly becoming a source of interests for various reasons which will be explained. First of all, economical stakes are huge for two main reasons the first one being the amount of natural ressources and its variety. Indeed, as per 2025, Greenland holds 25 out of the 34 essential minerals, a huge quantity of petrol (several billions of barrels), one of the biggest reserve of rare earths close to the city of Narsaq, and last but not least a non insignificant amount of graphite, lithium and copper which are all important components for the manufacturing of electric cars and tech goods. It is with worth noting that so far these were the latest numbers but as the ice is melting, scientists will be able to further look for minerals and natural resources in territories now covered by ice : this is a very conservative approach of the numbers which may actually be several times higher than the current estimations. Furthermore, experts believe that 5% of global trade will cruise through the Arctic by the year 2050, thus becoming an important trade route and alternative to more disputed ones (Suez Canal, or Panama Canal which is claimed by President Trump once again).
Second, as the world has been witnessing natural catastrophes and critical damages done to the agricultural sector worldwide as well as damage to the soil, fresh water will increasingly become source of conflicts. Nowadays, more than 25% of world’s population is going through hydric stress, meaning that more than 2 billion people are in danger because of fresh water shortage or insufficient infrastructure allowing the processing of sea water into drinkable water. Greenland holds 10% of the world’s reserve of fresh water, emphasizing it’s importance for future international relations and upcoming disputes involving many countries, among which the most important ones being Russia, the United States and China. Water could then become not only a geopolitical weapon, but also a leverage tool for negotiations between countries.
Apart from these economical challenges, Greenland is also a key territory ensuring national security for countries neighboring the Arctic. Russia has inherited from the previous USSR naval bases, therefore justifying it’s military presence and its determined will to protect its sovereignty in this region; China, since it’s Arctic Policy in 2018, has declared itself « Near-Artic State » enforcing it’s presence and thus protecting it’s financial assets among the Belt and Road Initiative, investments in the gaz sector and exploitation in Russia. Last but not least, the US and Canada historical allies which both have claimed their sovereign presence in the region. What does that mean in concret terms ? Military presence and forces can be materialized by many concepts but in the Arctic, the dimension of military is quite different from elsewhere. Indeed, modern military operations highly depend on the use of satellites : the Ukraine-Russia crisis is a prime exemple of the need for both countries to use the data provided by satellites in order to program, and coordinate specific attacks. The Arctic’s positioning allows the perfect position for military commanders and space operators to monitor the satellite’s during every revolution. For that reason, many experts in mentioned countries had been warning their home’s administrations to further increase their presence in this region.
Back to our first quote, by claiming its need of annexing Greenland, the USA’s leaderships confronted itself to the Europeans, as Greenland is still part of Denmark, itself member of both the European Union and NATO. Trump’s bold statement was another blow to the World Order established after the end of World War 2, thus polarizing international relations drawing alliances either on this Western’s side, or on the USSR’s side. Germany, despite its weak military capacities thanks to harsh sanctions imposed both after World War 1 and 2, fearlessly defended Denmark’s interests as well as the Union’s one and didn’t hesitate backing the deployment of German armed forces, « if they have the necessary technical capabilities », according to the chair of EU Defense Committee, Marie-Agnès Strack-Zimmermann.
These back-and-forth political declarations, at last, seem to encourage Russia’s progress in both the Arctic and Ukraine harming the long lasting Western cohesion.
The writer Roman ULLAH is a lawyer based in France, Bangladeshi-Spanish background. He could be contracted through “ullahroman@hotmail.fr”
