The Bangladesh government is unlikely to announce the Ninth National Pay Scale for public sector employees before concluding final discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a new loan programme in October, according to officials familiar with the matter.

Officials said a key round of talks is expected to take place on the sidelines of the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok from October 12 to 18. The IMF’s position on increasing recurrent government expenditure, particularly public sector salaries, is expected to play a significant role in determining when the new pay scale will be implemented.

The IMF has already advised Bangladesh to postpone the new pay scale by at least two years, citing weak revenue collection and persistent fiscal deficits. The recommendation has prompted the government to take a more cautious approach.

On July 26, Prime Minister Tareq Rahman met Finance Ministry officials to review revenue collection, government spending, the financial impact of the proposed pay scale, and the overall macroeconomic situation. During the meeting, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury highlighted the additional fiscal burden of implementing the revised salary structure. The prime minister instructed officials to conduct a more detailed assessment, taking into account risks from higher global energy prices, pressure on domestic gas supplies, and broader economic uncertainties.

A senior Finance Ministry official said an IMF delegation that visited Bangladesh from July 12 to 16 also discussed salary and allowance budgeting with the Finance Division. IMF representatives reportedly noted that the country’s current revenue base is not strong enough to support a substantial increase in government salaries.

The IMF also pointed to rising government spending on family cards, farmer cards, subsidies, and social safety net programmes, while revenue growth has lagged behind. It warned that introducing a new pay scale amid persistent inflation and limited fiscal capacity could increase financial risks.

Despite the delay, officials stressed that the government has not abandoned the proposal. A 10-member high-level committee led by Cabinet Secretary Nasimul Gani has reviewed recommendations from the National Pay Commission-2025, the Bangladesh Judicial Service Pay Commission-2025, and the Armed Forces Pay Committee-2025, and prepared a revised framework for the Ninth National Pay Scale.

The proposal, incorporating several revisions, has been submitted to the Finance Ministry and presented to the prime minister. According to a senior official, the government is considering phased implementation or alternative approaches to reduce fiscal pressure, with a strategy expected to be finalized before the October IMF meetings.

The National Pay Commission-2025, chaired by former Finance Secretary Zakir Ahmed Khan, submitted its report on January 22. It recommended increasing salaries and allowances by 100% to 140%, raising the minimum basic salary from Tk 8,250 to Tk 20,000 and the maximum basic salary from Tk 78,000 to Tk 160,000. The commission also proposed increasing the Bengali New Year allowance from 20% to 50%, revising transport allowances for grades 10 to 20, and restructuring other benefits.

The commission estimated that implementing the recommendations would require an additional Tk 106,000 crore annually.

In the FY2026-27 budget speech, the finance minister announced plans to introduce the new pay structure in phases beginning in July. The budget allocated an additional Tk 54,572 crore for the public administration sector, with nearly Tk 44,000 crore earmarked for implementing the proposed pay scale for government employees, MPO-listed teachers, and pensioners.

Economists say a revised pay scale is overdue, noting that public sector salaries have not been adjusted since 2015 despite years of high inflation that have eroded purchasing power. However, they cautioned that Bangladesh’s low tax-to-GDP ratio and weak revenue collection remain major concerns.

Researchers at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) warned that implementing the new pay scale without strengthening revenue mobilization could increase the government’s reliance on domestic and foreign borrowing, widen the budget deficit, and place additional pressure on the economy.