B Mirror Report: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.0% in fiscal year (FY) 2026 and 4.7% in FY2027, indicating a gradual recovery after three years of slowing growth.

In its Asian Development Outlook April 2026 report released on 10 April, the bank said growth is expected to improve from 3.5% in FY2025, supported by a recovery in consumption and investment.

The report noted that easing political uncertainty following the general election is likely to support domestic demand. However, it also said temporary disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict affected activity in the last quarter, though these pressures are expected to ease.

ADB Country Director Hoe Yun Jeong said Bangladesh is operating in a difficult economic environment shaped by global uncertainty, domestic constraints, and external sector pressures. He added that ongoing reforms present an opportunity to strengthen stability and restore investor confidence.

Inflation is projected to remain high at 9.0% in FY2026 before easing to 8.5% in FY2027, reflecting persistent global energy price pressures and supply-side constraints.
The current account deficit is expected to remain manageable at 0.5% of GDP in FY2026, slightly widening to 0.6% in FY2027 due to rising imports and a broader trade gap. Remittance inflows are expected to remain steady despite geopolitical tensions.
The report said growth will be driven by stronger consumption, remittances, and public spending, alongside government efforts to improve the investment climate and ease of doing business.

On the supply side, services are expected to rebound, agriculture to normalize, and industry to strengthen, supported by exports, infrastructure development, and energy sector improvements.

However, the ADB warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, especially if the Middle East conflict continues, which could push up energy prices, fuel inflation, and strain fiscal and external balances.

The bank also revised its earlier projections downward, compared to previous estimates of 5.0% and 5.1% growth. The forecast is broadly aligned with the World Bank, which expects slower growth amid ongoing economic challenges.