BM Desk : The World Bank projects that crude oil will drop from its current price of $68 per barrel to $60 in 2026, marking a major decline in fuel prices. The food and agriculture industries stand to gain from this fall, which might result in a further 7% drop in global commodity prices.

According to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 study, global commodity prices will drop for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, reaching their lowest point in six years. It is anticipated that weak global growth, growing oil surpluses, and persistent policy uncertainty will cause prices to decline by 7% in 2025 and 2026.

The report notes that the decrease in oil prices has already contributed to lower inflation worldwide. Staple foods such as rice and wheat have become more affordable in some developing countries, while falling energy costs are helping stabilize the global economy.

Demand for electric and hybrid vehicles, along with stable oil consumption in China, is gradually reducing oil demand. Crude oil prices are forecast to reach their lowest in five years in 2026, averaging $60 per barrel.

Food prices are expected to decline by 6.1% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026. Coffee and cocoa prices are also likely to fall in 2026, while fertilizer costs may spike 21% in 2025 due to trade restrictions before easing the following year. Precious metals like gold and silver are projected to see sharp price increases, with gold rising 42% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026.

World Bank economists highlight that lower fuel prices provide developing economies with a key opportunity to redirect savings toward infrastructure, human capital, and sustainable employment, supporting long-term productivity.

The report warns, however, that geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, or supply disruptions could reverse these trends, potentially raising prices for oil and safe-haven commodities.