Promising signs of recovery have been seen in Bangladesh’s economic activities during the last six months of the 2025 fiscal year. This information was highlighted in the “Bangladesh State of the Economy 2025” report published by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission. The report was released at an event held on Monday (8 December) at the NEC Conference Room in Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.
According to the report, although various forecasts had expressed concerns about a slowdown in growth, key indicators are now gradually pointing toward recovery.
The GED report mentions that major development partners expect Bangladesh’s GDP growth in the 2025 fiscal year to remain lower than the previous year. The World Bank has projected growth in the range of 3.3% to 4.1%, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasted 3.9%. However, the economy is expected to gain momentum in the 2026 fiscal year, with growth projected to rise to between 5.1% and 5.3%.
The report highlights notable stability in Bangladesh’s external sector. Strong remittance inflows, stable imports, and the recovery of capital machinery imports are signaling rising domestic demand as well as renewed investor confidence.
Export earnings have also remained robust, made possible by enhanced competitiveness of the ready-made garment (RMG) sector, improved compliance, and market diversification.
Foreign exchange reserves have remained stable at a level sufficient to cover more than three months of import payments, reflecting prudent macroeconomic management.
The report further states that revenue collection was severely disrupted in June due to work stoppages by NBR officials following the decision to divide the National Board of Revenue (NBR) into two separate divisions. After the withdrawal of the protest, the situation normalized and revenue collection resumed.
GED emphasized that controlling inflation, restoring investor confidence, and stabilizing the financial sector are essential for boosting growth in the 2025–26 fiscal year. Although many forecasts indicate a recovery, the extent to which growth translates into job creation, poverty reduction, and improved living standards will depend on effective policies, strong financial sector governance, and inclusive development strategies.
The report identifies weak private investment and sluggish industrial activities as major barriers to growth. In contrast, remittance inflows, export performance, and output from the manufacturing sector especially the RMG industry are acting as key drivers of growth and are expected to play an important role in the 2026 fiscal year as well.
However, Bangladesh will need to confront challenges such as limited reserves, a crisis of investor confidence, shifting buyer preferences, global trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties.
The report notes that Bangladesh now stands at a critical juncture. Meeting the needs of a large and growing labor market, increasing productivity particularly in the garment and SME sectors—boosting remittances, and investing in human capital must be treated as national priorities.
If emerging vulnerabilities especially inflation, financial sector instability, weak investment climate, governance challenges, and external risks are not addressed, growth may slow, living standards may deteriorate, poverty may rise, and inequality may worsen.
On the other hand, if timely and coordinated policy reforms, strong institutions, and clear policy communication can be ensured, Bangladesh will regain momentum and create opportunities for more inclusive growth.
GED concludes that a well-designed national sustainable development strategy, supported by structural reforms and an innovation-driven economic outlook, will guide future development planning, enhancing resilience and long-term economic strength.
