By Harunur Rashid, AvMP: Whenever a geopolitical crisis erupts in the Middle East, the ripples are felt almost immediately in the skies over Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet. The latest June 2026 Global Outlook from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) paints a challenging picture for worldwide aviation. But what does a global energy shock mean for a Bangladeshi expatriate buying a ticket to the Gulf, or a garment exporter shipping a premium order to Europe?
Let’s break down the complex global numbers into reality for Bangladesh.
The Fuel Shock: Why Tickets Are Getting Expensive
In late February of this year, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a massive global energy crisis, knocking out 10% of the world’s oil supply. For airlines, this meant jet fuel prices skyrocketed, hitting an expected average of USD 152 per barrel for 2026.
Because fuel is an airline’s single largest expense, these costs are inevitably passed down to consumers. For our massive population of migrant workers traveling to the Middle East or Malaysia, this means ticket prices are going to remain high. Airlines are simply paying too much for fuel to offer the budget fares we used to see.
A Tale of Two Skies: Re-routing the World
According to the IATA report, passenger traffic in the Middle East is expected to shrink by 11.4% this year due to airspace restrictions and regional instability.
However, Asia-Pacific passenger traffic is still expected to grow by 5.1%. What we are seeing is a massive shift in how the world flies. International flight paths are actively avoiding troubled zones, which means more traffic is routing through South and East Asia. While this places a premium on our airspace, it also means our local airlines have to compete in a highly volatile regional market where operating costs are soaring but margins are razor-thin—global airline profits per passenger are expected to drop to just USD 4.50 this year.
The Cargo Crunch: An Opportunity for Bangladeshi Exports?
One of the most interesting takeaways from the IATA data is the situation with air cargo. While sea shipping routes face disruptions, global businesses are rushing to move time-sensitive cargo via the skies. Global air cargo revenues are projected to hit USD 162 billion as yields rise.
For Bangladesh’s Ready-Made Garments (RMG) and e-commerce sectors, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, global shipping delays mean international buyers might demand air freight to get goods on shelves on time. On the other hand, because passenger belly capacity is squeezed globally, space on dedicated freighters is tight and expensive. Our exporters must plan weeks in advance to secure airspace for their goods.
The Planes That Weren’t Built
Adding to the headache, the global aviation industry is currently short of about 3,170 aircraft due to supply chain backlogs and delayed retirements. If you’ve wondered why local or regional airlines aren’t simply adding more flights to lower ticket prices, this is why: there simply aren’t enough planes available in the market to lease or buy. Airlines are forced to fly older, less fuel-efficient aircraft longer, which further drives up fuel consumption and costs.
The Bottom Line
The global aviation industry is in survival and adaptation mode. For Bangladesh, the message is clear: expect higher airfares to persist through 2026, and expect tight cargo space. As an industry, our focus must be on maximizing efficiency at our airports, supporting our local carriers through these turbulent times, and ensuring our migrant workforce isn’t unfairly priced out of their livelihoods.
The skies are turbulent right now, but by understanding these global forces, Bangladesh can better navigate the headwinds.
About the author:
Harunur Rashid is Founder & CEO of aviation.com.bd and a seasoned aviation trainer with over a decade of hands-on experience in ground operations. A certified Aviation Management Professional (AvMP, IATA) and former Airport Manager at Air Arabia, he holds a Diploma in Ground Operation Management from IATA and completed his Train the Trainer certification in Singapore. Through his platform and training programs, his mission is to equip the next generation of aviation professionals with practical knowledge, global standards, and real-world insights.
Data Source: IATA Global Outlook for Air Transport, Publisher: International Air Transport Association (IATA), Release Date: June 2026
