Today, the Bangladesh Bank will release its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the first half of the fiscal year 2025–2026. The MPS will drastically reduce the objective for private sector loan growth from 9.8% to 7.2%.
In an effort to further lower inflation, the central bank has chosen to maintain its key policy rate at 10%.

One board member told media yesterday that the updated aim was approved during a central bank board meeting on Wednesday.

This updated projection comes after private sector loan growth in June of this year was only 6.40%, a level not seen in recent years after persistently falling below 7% for several months. The central bank anticipates an 8% increase in overall private sector lending.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur is set to present the new Monetary Policy Statement for the period of July-December 2025 at 3pm today.

A senior official from the central bank confirmed that the decision to keep the policy rate steady is in line with Governor Mansur’s previous announcement: no rate reductions until the inflation rate dips below 7%.

Although inflation, which reached a peak of 11.66% in July 2024, fell to 8.48% in June of the current year – its lowest level in 35 months – it still exceeds the central bank’s threshold for a rate cut.

This reduction, however, indicates the success of the central bank’s monetary policy, among other influencing factors. The government’s budget for the current fiscal year aims for an average inflation rate of 6.50% and a growth rate of 5.50% by June 2026.

Another board member noted that the meeting recognized the central bank’s limitations in controlling inflation solely through monetary policy. A considerable portion of food inflation, particularly driven by increasing rice prices, requires external intervention. As a result, the central bank will recommend that the government import rice as necessary to ensure sufficient reserves.

The Bangladesh Bank last modified its policy rate, the repo rate, on 22 October of the previous year, raising it by 50 basis points to 10%. This rate is applicable to short-term loans that banks obtain from the central bank against government securities.

The Standing Lending Facility (SLF) rate, which controls interest on emergency loans, will stay at 11.50% under the new monetary policy. On July 15, however, the central bank lowered the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate by 50 basis points to 8% in order to boost the interbank call money market. When banks deposit money with the central bank, this rate is applicable.
Skepticism was voiced by Mustafa K. Mujeri, a former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank and director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. He pointed to a difficult business climate, erratic fuel supplies, an unusual state of law and order, and a generally weak

He asserted that “private sector credit only rises when investment or productivity in the nation rises.” “I don’t expect a major change in the next six months, and the current economic environment is not very good, so it will be very difficult for the central bank’s estimate to materialize.”
However, Tanjil Chowdhury, the chairman of Prime Bank and managing director of East Coast Group, believes the central bank’s goal is doable.
First of all, he thinks that industry and government measures will improve the investment climate by producing favorable results about possible US tariff implications.

Second, Tanjil expects a rise in imports and, as a result, a rise in private sector credit, and sees the current decline in import Letters of Credit (LCs) as a transitory state. Additionally, he mentioned the Taka’s strengthening, which he thinks will help the economy.
Thirdly, he emphasized that there is a great opportunity because export orders are not declining. “By focusing on this export sector, I believe we can achieve the private sector credit growth target.”